My apologies for the delay in updates - I am back now after grading + vacation!

Daily

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Important dates:

  • (purple dashed lines) August 31, Sept 14, Sept 28: Return to campus/school, +2 weeks, +4 weeks

Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

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Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.

  • First plot is conservative (10-day total) estimate
  • Second plot is 14-day total used in MN Safe-Learning plan

Eau Claire

Chippewa

Barron

La Crosse

Dane

Wisconsin

By the Numbers

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Definitions

Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table

Eau Claire

Eau Claire cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 9295 42200 292 76 387 544
January 03 2021 9375 42262 296 77 400 582
January 04 2021 9427 42339 298 79 427 601
January 05 2021 9464 42460 302 80 464 607
January 06 2021 9548 42602 306 80 484 640
January 07 2021 9630 42738 306 83 541 655
January 08 2021 9682 42852 308 84 564 682
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 3.9 7.3% 41 0.36% 48 0.42%
10-19 7 5.3 8.7% 49 0.36% 55 0.4%
20-29 14 15.3 23.9% 135 0.65% 165 0.79%
30-39 5 8.1 16.7% 94 0.69% 114 0.84%
40-49 9 4.9 10.3% 58 0.55% 67 0.64%
50-59 6 6.7 13.3% 75 0.6% 92 0.73%
60-69 6 6.0 10.6% 60 0.52% 77 0.67%
70+ 2 5.1 9.4% 53 0.51% 64 0.61%
All ages 52 55.3 100% 564 0.54% 682 0.65%

Chippewa

Chippewa cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 5923 25161 173 65 233 319
January 03 2021 5972 25192 174 66 245 347
January 04 2021 6004 25225 174 66 276 358
January 05 2021 6015 25275 178 67 282 349
January 06 2021 6067 25352 179 67 282 377
January 07 2021 6093 25432 179 67 296 366
January 08 2021 6176 25499 179 67 362 448
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 9 2.9 7.2% 26 0.34% 30 0.39%
10-19 8 2.9 9.9% 36 0.43% 44 0.52%
20-29 10 6.6 15.5% 56 0.79% 75 1.05%
30-39 15 4.9 13.3% 48 0.57% 63 0.75%
40-49 7 3.9 13% 47 0.61% 55 0.71%
50-59 12 5.7 15.5% 56 0.58% 66 0.68%
60-69 13 4.9 14.1% 51 0.61% 59 0.7%
70+ 9 4.6 11.6% 42 0.59% 56 0.79%
All ages 83 36.1 100% 362 0.56% 448 0.69%

Barron

Barron cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 4513 16831 190 57 205 304
January 03 2021 4534 16855 190 57 192 304
January 04 2021 4549 16859 190 57 183 291
January 05 2021 4567 16901 192 57 201 275
January 06 2021 4585 16970 194 58 192 277
January 07 2021 4629 17012 195 58 231 287
January 08 2021 4679 17092 196 58 275 313
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 3 1.7 6.2% 17 0.31% 19 0.35%
10-19 6 2.1 13.1% 36 0.66% 45 0.83%
20-29 6 3.1 13.8% 38 0.84% 42 0.93%
30-39 6 3.3 14.5% 40 0.74% 49 0.9%
40-49 11 4.3 15.6% 43 0.86% 47 0.94%
50-59 5 4.3 15.6% 43 0.63% 44 0.65%
60-69 8 2.9 11.3% 31 0.49% 35 0.55%
70+ 5 2.9 9.8% 27 0.43% 32 0.51%
All ages 50 24.6 100% 275 0.61% 313 0.69%

La Crosse

La Crosse cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 10160 45536 234 56 438 627
January 03 2021 10229 45610 236 56 455 650
January 04 2021 10307 45692 238 58 532 692
January 05 2021 10386 45824 243 59 611 739
January 06 2021 10482 45984 252 61 651 760
January 07 2021 10545 46117 255 63 678 771
January 08 2021 10593 46291 256 63 684 818
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 -1 4.4 6.9% 47 0.4% 51 0.43%
10-19 4 7.9 12.3% 84 0.51% 99 0.6%
20-29 14 14.7 23.1% 158 0.74% 193 0.91%
30-39 13 9.0 15.8% 108 0.79% 127 0.93%
40-49 4 7.4 13.3% 91 0.67% 110 0.81%
50-59 7 7.4 10.2% 70 0.49% 85 0.6%
60-69 5 4.6 8.3% 57 0.4% 73 0.51%
70+ 2 6.7 10.1% 69 0.53% 79 0.61%
All ages 48 62.1 100% 684 0.58% 817 0.69%

Dane

Dane cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 33539 295259 1010 183 1534 2010
January 03 2021 33807 295450 1016 182 1594 2167
January 04 2021 34013 295937 1019 182 1639 2235
January 05 2021 34142 296167 1037 190 1767 2275
January 06 2021 34337 296458 1046 190 1782 2332
January 07 2021 34723 297069 1042 203 2002 2510
January 08 2021 35008 297654 1047 203 2218 2634
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 20 10.3 5% 112 0.19% 131 0.22%
10-19 44 24.9 10.9% 241 0.34% 291 0.41%
20-29 82 57.3 26.4% 586 0.56% 669 0.64%
30-39 44 37.4 19.2% 425 0.56% 500 0.65%
40-49 51 31.0 14.8% 328 0.5% 381 0.58%
50-59 21 23.9 11.6% 258 0.39% 327 0.5%
60-69 12 13.4 7% 156 0.29% 192 0.35%
70+ 11 11.7 5% 112 0.23% 143 0.29%
All ages 285 209.9 100% 2218 0.41% 2634 0.48%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin cumulative counts of COVID cases and outcomes
DATE POSITIVE NEGATIVE Hospitalization Yes DEATHS New In Last 10days New In Last 14days
January 02 2021 484085 2361033 21449 4870 20491 28734
January 03 2021 486531 2363175 21529 4875 20138 29354
January 04 2021 487938 2365680 21580 4884 20039 29326
January 05 2021 491341 2370485 21796 4979 22810 30326
January 06 2021 494747 2377053 21971 5039 23929 31153
January 07 2021 498538 2383410 22070 5079 26385 32145
January 08 2021 502012 2390538 22206 5119 27475 34113
Age Group Daily New Cases Daily New Cases 7-day Average Percent of All Active Cases Actives (conservative estimate) Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan)
0-9 182 142.1 5.1% 1393 0.22% 1719 0.27%
10-19 463 327.0 11.9% 3256 0.43% 3994 0.53%
20-29 631 469.6 17.3% 4747 0.63% 5845 0.77%
30-39 523 427.7 15.9% 4380 0.58% 5418 0.72%
40-49 495 386.7 14.2% 3909 0.56% 4823 0.69%
50-59 495 397.1 14.9% 4090 0.5% 5082 0.62%
60-69 360 298.0 11% 3020 0.4% 3774 0.5%
70+ 323 266.4 9.8% 2679 0.42% 3456 0.54%
All ages 3474 2715.0 100% 27475 0.47% 34113 0.59%

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Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.

Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):

  • 2wk: Two-week case total (most recent 14 days), rate per 10K of county population
  • 2wk10s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 10-19 population
  • 2wk20s: Approximate two-week case total, rate per 10K of 20-29 population; since over 50% of students on campus are in early 20s
  • daily7: Daily new-case running average (average over 7 days)
  • posratedaily7 (as a percent): Daily positive-test rate, running average (average over 7 days)

and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:

Criteria 2wk Criteria 2wk20s Criteria daily7 Suggestion
> 25 > 30 urge extra caution
> 28 > 45* decreasing consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH
> 28 > 45* steady to increasing strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH.
> 30 > 50 decreasing ’’ ’’ ’’
> 30 > 50 steady to increasing based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable

*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.

Eau Claire

Eau Claire 2wk Eau Claire 2wk10s Eau Claire 2wk20s Eau Claire current daily7 Eau Claire past daily7 Eau Claire posratedaily7
65.2 40.4 78.8 55.3 37.6 34.6%

Important Resources:

Chippewa

Chippewa 2wk Chippewa current daily7 Chippewa past daily7 Chippewa posratedaily7
69.3 36.1 21.6 40.5%

Barron

Barron 2wk Barron current daily7 Barron past daily7 Barron posratedaily7
69.2 24.6 20 36.7%

La Crosse

La Crosse 2wk La Crosse 2wk10s La Crosse 2wk20s La Crosse current daily7 La Crosse past daily7 La Crosse posratedaily7
69.1 59.8 90.7 62.1 36 34.9%

Dane

Dane 2wk Dane 2wk10s Dane 2wk20s Dane current daily7 Dane past daily7 Dane posratedaily7
48.2 40.9 64.4 209.9 134.7 33.8%

Wisconsin

Wisconsin 2wk Wisconsin 2wk10s Wisconsin 2wk20s Wisconsin current daily7 Wisconsin past daily7 Wisconsin posratedaily7
58.6 52.8 77.2 2715 1934.4 36.2%

Important Resources:

Cumulative

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

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Eau Claire

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Wisconsin

References

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Reliable Updated Visuals

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Modeling

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Predicting cumulative deaths in state

  • WI correpondence between Cumulative cases and deaths (at time lag)
    • Starting with late May, after daily tests regularly above 6000
[1] "The number of  cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4469"

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Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges

  • Portage county (Stevens Point): gray
  • Eau Claire county (Eau Claire): blue
  • Dane county (Madison): green
  • La Crosse county (La Crosse): red