Important dates:
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Various 7-day average trends
Estimated Active, split by Age group: Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going.
Definitions
Case fatality rate, etc: Need to add definitions and compute to table
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 9295 | 42200 | 292 | 76 | 387 | 544 |
| January 03 2021 | 9375 | 42262 | 296 | 77 | 400 | 582 |
| January 04 2021 | 9427 | 42339 | 298 | 79 | 427 | 601 |
| January 05 2021 | 9464 | 42460 | 302 | 80 | 464 | 607 |
| January 06 2021 | 9548 | 42602 | 306 | 80 | 484 | 640 |
| January 07 2021 | 9630 | 42738 | 306 | 83 | 541 | 655 |
| January 08 2021 | 9682 | 42852 | 308 | 84 | 564 | 682 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 3.9 | 7.3% | 41 | 0.36% | 48 | 0.42% |
| 10-19 | 7 | 5.3 | 8.7% | 49 | 0.36% | 55 | 0.4% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 15.3 | 23.9% | 135 | 0.65% | 165 | 0.79% |
| 30-39 | 5 | 8.1 | 16.7% | 94 | 0.69% | 114 | 0.84% |
| 40-49 | 9 | 4.9 | 10.3% | 58 | 0.55% | 67 | 0.64% |
| 50-59 | 6 | 6.7 | 13.3% | 75 | 0.6% | 92 | 0.73% |
| 60-69 | 6 | 6.0 | 10.6% | 60 | 0.52% | 77 | 0.67% |
| 70+ | 2 | 5.1 | 9.4% | 53 | 0.51% | 64 | 0.61% |
| All ages | 52 | 55.3 | 100% | 564 | 0.54% | 682 | 0.65% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 5923 | 25161 | 173 | 65 | 233 | 319 |
| January 03 2021 | 5972 | 25192 | 174 | 66 | 245 | 347 |
| January 04 2021 | 6004 | 25225 | 174 | 66 | 276 | 358 |
| January 05 2021 | 6015 | 25275 | 178 | 67 | 282 | 349 |
| January 06 2021 | 6067 | 25352 | 179 | 67 | 282 | 377 |
| January 07 2021 | 6093 | 25432 | 179 | 67 | 296 | 366 |
| January 08 2021 | 6176 | 25499 | 179 | 67 | 362 | 448 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 9 | 2.9 | 7.2% | 26 | 0.34% | 30 | 0.39% |
| 10-19 | 8 | 2.9 | 9.9% | 36 | 0.43% | 44 | 0.52% |
| 20-29 | 10 | 6.6 | 15.5% | 56 | 0.79% | 75 | 1.05% |
| 30-39 | 15 | 4.9 | 13.3% | 48 | 0.57% | 63 | 0.75% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 3.9 | 13% | 47 | 0.61% | 55 | 0.71% |
| 50-59 | 12 | 5.7 | 15.5% | 56 | 0.58% | 66 | 0.68% |
| 60-69 | 13 | 4.9 | 14.1% | 51 | 0.61% | 59 | 0.7% |
| 70+ | 9 | 4.6 | 11.6% | 42 | 0.59% | 56 | 0.79% |
| All ages | 83 | 36.1 | 100% | 362 | 0.56% | 448 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 4513 | 16831 | 190 | 57 | 205 | 304 |
| January 03 2021 | 4534 | 16855 | 190 | 57 | 192 | 304 |
| January 04 2021 | 4549 | 16859 | 190 | 57 | 183 | 291 |
| January 05 2021 | 4567 | 16901 | 192 | 57 | 201 | 275 |
| January 06 2021 | 4585 | 16970 | 194 | 58 | 192 | 277 |
| January 07 2021 | 4629 | 17012 | 195 | 58 | 231 | 287 |
| January 08 2021 | 4679 | 17092 | 196 | 58 | 275 | 313 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 3 | 1.7 | 6.2% | 17 | 0.31% | 19 | 0.35% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 2.1 | 13.1% | 36 | 0.66% | 45 | 0.83% |
| 20-29 | 6 | 3.1 | 13.8% | 38 | 0.84% | 42 | 0.93% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 3.3 | 14.5% | 40 | 0.74% | 49 | 0.9% |
| 40-49 | 11 | 4.3 | 15.6% | 43 | 0.86% | 47 | 0.94% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 4.3 | 15.6% | 43 | 0.63% | 44 | 0.65% |
| 60-69 | 8 | 2.9 | 11.3% | 31 | 0.49% | 35 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 5 | 2.9 | 9.8% | 27 | 0.43% | 32 | 0.51% |
| All ages | 50 | 24.6 | 100% | 275 | 0.61% | 313 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 10160 | 45536 | 234 | 56 | 438 | 627 |
| January 03 2021 | 10229 | 45610 | 236 | 56 | 455 | 650 |
| January 04 2021 | 10307 | 45692 | 238 | 58 | 532 | 692 |
| January 05 2021 | 10386 | 45824 | 243 | 59 | 611 | 739 |
| January 06 2021 | 10482 | 45984 | 252 | 61 | 651 | 760 |
| January 07 2021 | 10545 | 46117 | 255 | 63 | 678 | 771 |
| January 08 2021 | 10593 | 46291 | 256 | 63 | 684 | 818 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | -1 | 4.4 | 6.9% | 47 | 0.4% | 51 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 4 | 7.9 | 12.3% | 84 | 0.51% | 99 | 0.6% |
| 20-29 | 14 | 14.7 | 23.1% | 158 | 0.74% | 193 | 0.91% |
| 30-39 | 13 | 9.0 | 15.8% | 108 | 0.79% | 127 | 0.93% |
| 40-49 | 4 | 7.4 | 13.3% | 91 | 0.67% | 110 | 0.81% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 7.4 | 10.2% | 70 | 0.49% | 85 | 0.6% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 4.6 | 8.3% | 57 | 0.4% | 73 | 0.51% |
| 70+ | 2 | 6.7 | 10.1% | 69 | 0.53% | 79 | 0.61% |
| All ages | 48 | 62.1 | 100% | 684 | 0.58% | 817 | 0.69% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 33539 | 295259 | 1010 | 183 | 1534 | 2010 |
| January 03 2021 | 33807 | 295450 | 1016 | 182 | 1594 | 2167 |
| January 04 2021 | 34013 | 295937 | 1019 | 182 | 1639 | 2235 |
| January 05 2021 | 34142 | 296167 | 1037 | 190 | 1767 | 2275 |
| January 06 2021 | 34337 | 296458 | 1046 | 190 | 1782 | 2332 |
| January 07 2021 | 34723 | 297069 | 1042 | 203 | 2002 | 2510 |
| January 08 2021 | 35008 | 297654 | 1047 | 203 | 2218 | 2634 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 20 | 10.3 | 5% | 112 | 0.19% | 131 | 0.22% |
| 10-19 | 44 | 24.9 | 10.9% | 241 | 0.34% | 291 | 0.41% |
| 20-29 | 82 | 57.3 | 26.4% | 586 | 0.56% | 669 | 0.64% |
| 30-39 | 44 | 37.4 | 19.2% | 425 | 0.56% | 500 | 0.65% |
| 40-49 | 51 | 31.0 | 14.8% | 328 | 0.5% | 381 | 0.58% |
| 50-59 | 21 | 23.9 | 11.6% | 258 | 0.39% | 327 | 0.5% |
| 60-69 | 12 | 13.4 | 7% | 156 | 0.29% | 192 | 0.35% |
| 70+ | 11 | 11.7 | 5% | 112 | 0.23% | 143 | 0.29% |
| All ages | 285 | 209.9 | 100% | 2218 | 0.41% | 2634 | 0.48% |
| DATE | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days | New In Last 14days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 02 2021 | 484085 | 2361033 | 21449 | 4870 | 20491 | 28734 |
| January 03 2021 | 486531 | 2363175 | 21529 | 4875 | 20138 | 29354 |
| January 04 2021 | 487938 | 2365680 | 21580 | 4884 | 20039 | 29326 |
| January 05 2021 | 491341 | 2370485 | 21796 | 4979 | 22810 | 30326 |
| January 06 2021 | 494747 | 2377053 | 21971 | 5039 | 23929 | 31153 |
| January 07 2021 | 498538 | 2383410 | 22070 | 5079 | 26385 | 32145 |
| January 08 2021 | 502012 | 2390538 | 22206 | 5119 | 27475 | 34113 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) | Actives (MN-Safety-Plan) | Percent of Subpopulation (MN-Safety-Plan) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 182 | 142.1 | 5.1% | 1393 | 0.22% | 1719 | 0.27% |
| 10-19 | 463 | 327.0 | 11.9% | 3256 | 0.43% | 3994 | 0.53% |
| 20-29 | 631 | 469.6 | 17.3% | 4747 | 0.63% | 5845 | 0.77% |
| 30-39 | 523 | 427.7 | 15.9% | 4380 | 0.58% | 5418 | 0.72% |
| 40-49 | 495 | 386.7 | 14.2% | 3909 | 0.56% | 4823 | 0.69% |
| 50-59 | 495 | 397.1 | 14.9% | 4090 | 0.5% | 5082 | 0.62% |
| 60-69 | 360 | 298.0 | 11% | 3020 | 0.4% | 3774 | 0.5% |
| 70+ | 323 | 266.4 | 9.8% | 2679 | 0.42% | 3456 | 0.54% |
| All ages | 3474 | 2715.0 | 100% | 27475 | 0.47% | 34113 | 0.59% |
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
| Eau Claire 2wk | Eau Claire 2wk10s | Eau Claire 2wk20s | Eau Claire current daily7 | Eau Claire past daily7 | Eau Claire posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65.2 | 40.4 | 78.8 | 55.3 | 37.6 | 34.6% |
Important Resources:
| Chippewa 2wk | Chippewa current daily7 | Chippewa past daily7 | Chippewa posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69.3 | 36.1 | 21.6 | 40.5% |
| Barron 2wk | Barron current daily7 | Barron past daily7 | Barron posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 69.2 | 24.6 | 20 | 36.7% |
| La Crosse 2wk | La Crosse 2wk10s | La Crosse 2wk20s | La Crosse current daily7 | La Crosse past daily7 | La Crosse posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 69.1 | 59.8 | 90.7 | 62.1 | 36 | 34.9% |
| Dane 2wk | Dane 2wk10s | Dane 2wk20s | Dane current daily7 | Dane past daily7 | Dane posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 48.2 | 40.9 | 64.4 | 209.9 | 134.7 | 33.8% |
| Wisconsin 2wk | Wisconsin 2wk10s | Wisconsin 2wk20s | Wisconsin current daily7 | Wisconsin past daily7 | Wisconsin posratedaily7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 58.6 | 52.8 | 77.2 | 2715 | 1934.4 | 36.2% |
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 2 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.59 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-01-30 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 4469"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges